From The Grail Report
Which Sneakers Rise in Price, and When to Buy
I tracked 326 sneakers released between February and May 2026 from release day to months later, then marked by hand which ones were genuinely hard to get. Six kinds of release came out of it, each with its own buy window. This is the one-page guide.
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The field guide, in one place
“Change” is the median move from the release-day resale price to the price months later, per shoe. The one question that sorts everything: could you have walked up and bought it?
| Shoe type | What it does | Change | When to buy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raffle / genuinely hard to get | Holds far above retail, still slips from the release-day resale price | -16% | Retail on day one. On resale, waiting saves only 10-15%. |
| Collaboration you could actually buy | Decays like a general release, just from a higher price | -27% | Retail on day one if you can. Otherwise a couple of months. |
| Signature line | Opens at 1.5x retail, lands back at retail | -23% | Wait about 3 months. |
| Small premium over retail (1.0-1.25x) | Falls furthest, keeps falling after the others flatten | -24% | Wait 4 months. |
| Jordan retro, walk-up available | Rarely rises; the calendar is built so most people get a pair | -23% | Wait 3-4 months. |
| Kids sizes (TD / PS / GS) | Falls fastest and furthest; thin market | -33% | Retail only, or wait 2-3 months. Never resale on day one. |
The short version
Release day is the moment the market knows least about what a shoe is worth, and you pay for that uncertainty. Every category in the study was cheaper on resale a few months later. The only shoes worth paying up for on day one are the ones you genuinely could not get, and even those were cheaper later for sixteen of nineteen. If you can get it at retail, do. If you cannot, wait, and the guide tells you how long.
Method: release-week median resale vs. the median 55 to 120 days after, per SKU, from real sales. Spring 2026 release calendar only. Full write-up in The Grail Report.