SneakerPing Data Study
Sneaker Resale Market Report
Most sneakers released in the last two years are now worth less than they cost new. Across 3,538 releases from 31 brands, 59.5% most recently sold below retail, and the median pair traded 10.6% under retail. Prices come from recorded sales, not asking prices.
Quick Answer
59.5% of the 3,538 sneakers released between August 2024 and August 2026 in SneakerPing's dataset most recently sold below retail, and the median release traded 10.6% under retail. Jordan is the weakest major brand: 70.7% of its 605 releases sit below retail, with a median of 20.0% under. Prices are medians of actual recorded sales as of 18 August 2026.
Headline findings
59.5%
of releases from the last two years most recently sold below retail
-10.6%
median resale price versus retail across the full sample
3,538
sneakers across 31 brands, released 18 August 2024 to 16 August 2026
The received wisdom is that sneakers are an appreciating asset: buy at retail, resell at a premium. For most of what has come out since mid 2024, that is no longer true. The typical release is a losing trade the moment it hits the secondary market, and the brands with the deepest release calendars are the ones losing the most.
The premium has not disappeared, it has concentrated. Scarce collaborations and limited packs still clear multiples of retail, which is exactly why this report leads with medians. An average would let a handful of grails paper over a market where the middle of the distribution sits underwater.
Resale performance by brand
Brands with at least 30 releases in the sample. The Jordan row combines releases catalogued as Jordan and as Air Jordan. Read the limitations section before quoting the smaller brands.
| Brand | Pairs | Below retail | Median vs retail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan | 605 | 70.7% | -20.0% |
| Saucony | 45 | 62.2% | -15.2% |
| Nike | 1,591 | 61.6% | -12.4% |
| New Balance | 382 | 61.0% | -13.8% |
| adidas | 378 | 59.8% | -10.7% |
| Puma | 82 | 47.6% | +3.4% |
| On | 34 | 47.1% | +2.3% |
| ASICS | 133 | 42.9% | +4.8% |
| Crocs | 49 | 32.7% | +21.3% |
| Salomon | 41 | 31.7% | +15.6% |
| Vans | 47 | 19.1% | +92.2% |
| Converse | 60 | 15.0% | +48.8% |
The four largest catalogues in the sample, Nike, Jordan, New Balance, and adidas, all sit around or above 59% below retail. Together they account for 2,956 of the 3,538 releases studied, so the market-wide 59.5% figure is effectively a statement about them.
The brands showing gains are the ones with thin resale coverage. ASICS, Crocs, Salomon, Vans, and Converse each contribute fewer than 135 pairs, and what gets tracked for them skews heavily toward limited releases. Their rows describe collector product, not the general releases sitting in stores.
Jordan by model line
Jordan model lines with at least 20 releases in the sample. This is the sharpest result in the dataset: the three silhouettes that built the resale market are now its worst performers.
| Model | Pairs | Below retail | Median vs retail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan 3 | 69 | 84.1% | -25.8% |
| Jordan 4 | 134 | 75.4% | -27.3% |
| Jordan 1 | 168 | 73.2% | -22.3% |
| Jordan 11 | 46 | 69.6% | -12.7% |
| Other Jordan | 111 | 66.7% | -15.2% |
| Jordan 5 | 41 | 51.2% | -1.1% |
| Jordan 12 | 24 | 45.8% | +3.9% |
The Jordan 3 is the weakest line in the study. Of 69 releases, 84.1% most recently sold below retail, and the median pair traded 25.8% under. The Jordan 4 is close behind at 75.4% below retail with a median of 27.3% under, the steepest median discount of any line here.
The Jordan 1, the silhouette most associated with resale profit, is at 73.2% below retail with a median 22.3% under. The Jordan 5 is close to break even at 51.2% below retail and a median of 1.1% under, and the Jordan 12 is the only line in the group whose median release still clears retail, at 3.9% above.
The pattern tracks release volume. The lines that have been produced most heavily over the past two years are the ones where the median pair is furthest underwater, which is what supply outrunning demand looks like in price data.
Methodology
Sample
3,538 sneakers across 31 brands, released between 18 August 2024 and 16 August 2026. Pricing observations were recorded between 4 July 2026 and 18 August 2026. Data is as of 18 August 2026 and is refreshed quarterly.
Prices are recorded sales, not asks
Each sneaker is priced from the median of actual recorded sale prices, taken from SneakerPing's daily price history. It is not the lowest asking price. That distinction changes the answer: a lowest-ask series drifts downward simply as more sellers list a shoe, even when the prices people actually pay are flat, which overstates the decline. Using recorded sales removes that artifact.
Percent below retail
The share of sneakers whose most recent observed sale price is under the brand retail price for that release. One shoe counts once, whether it trades a dollar under retail or half of it.
Median versus retail
The median of each sneaker's percentage difference between its most recent sale price and its retail price. Because it is a median and not an average, a handful of extreme grails cannot move it. A brand row reading positive means the middle sneaker in that brand clears retail, not that the brand as a whole is profitable.
One shoe, one data point
Each release is a single observation regardless of size. Size-level variation is real and often large, but it is not modelled here, so these figures describe the shoe rather than any particular size run.
Limitations and selection bias
The catalogue is derived from resale marketplace coverage, so it is not a census of everything that shipped. Brands whose resale presence is mostly limited and collaboration product are over-represented at the high end of these tables.
Vans (47 pairs) and Converse (60 pairs) are the clearest cases. Both are dominated by limited LX and Premium packs and collaborations. A pair from the Vans Old Skool 36 LX Souvenir Pack trades around $531 against $70 retail. Those figures should not be read as evidence that general release Vans appreciate, because general release Vans are largely absent from the sample.
Nike and Jordan have deep coverage that includes general releases alongside limited product. Those rows are the robust ones, and they are the ones the headline number rests on.
Any brand with fewer than roughly 50 pairs, which covers Saucony, On, Crocs, Salomon, and Vans, is directional only. Treat those rows as a signal about which way a brand leans, not as a precise measurement.
These are secondary market prices. They exclude marketplace fees, shipping, and taxes, so a seller nets less than the figures shown, and a buyer pays more.
What this means for buyers
Patience is now the default play
When the median release lands 10.6% under retail, waiting is usually cheaper than fighting a raffle. The shoe you missed on release day is more likely to be discounted later than to be marked up.
Retail is not a floor
Three quarters of recent Jordan 4 releases sit under retail. Paying retail on a general release is a decision to own the shoe, not an investment, and it should be made on that basis.
Scarcity still pays, volume does not
The premiums that remain are concentrated in genuinely limited releases. Model lines with heavy release calendars are exactly the ones with the deepest median discounts.
Check the pair, not the brand
Brand-level medians hide enormous spread. Before buying or selling, look up what that specific shoe has actually sold for rather than what the silhouette used to be worth.
Look up a pairCiting this report
This report is free to cite and quote with attribution to SneakerPing and a link to this page. Figures are static and are updated on a quarterly schedule, so a citation stays accurate to the date it names.
Journalists who need a cut of the data that is not published here, such as a specific brand, model line, or time window, can reach the author through the contact page.
Frequently asked questions
What percentage of sneakers sell below retail?
In SneakerPing data covering 3,538 sneakers released between August 2024 and August 2026, 59.5% most recently sold below their retail price. The median release traded 10.6% under retail. Figures are as of 18 August 2026 and are based on recorded sale prices rather than asking prices.
Which sneaker brand loses the most value after release?
Of the brands with meaningful sample sizes, Jordan is the weakest: 70.7% of 605 Jordan releases trade below retail, with a median of 20.0% under retail. Nike follows at 61.6% below retail across 1,591 pairs, then New Balance at 61.0% and adidas at 59.8%.
Do Jordan 4s still resell above retail?
Most recent ones do not. Across 134 Jordan 4 releases in the sample, 75.4% most recently sold below retail and the median pair traded 27.3% under retail. The Jordan 3 is weaker still at 84.1% below retail, and the Jordan 1 sits at 73.2%.
Is the sneaker resale market dead?
No, but the default outcome has flipped. A majority of releases from the last two years now trade under retail, so buying a general release at retail and reselling it is no longer a reliable profit. Scarce collaborations and limited packs still carry large premiums, which is why medians rather than averages are the honest way to read this market.
How does SneakerPing calculate resale value versus retail?
Each sneaker is priced from the median of actual recorded sales, not from the lowest asking price. The most recent observed sale price is compared with the brand retail price for that release. Percent below retail is the share of sneakers whose most recent sale price is under retail, and median versus retail is the median of those individual percentage differences.
Why do Vans and Converse appear to gain value?
Because of selection bias, not because general release Vans and Converse appreciate. The catalog is built from resale marketplace coverage, and for those two brands the covered releases are dominated by limited LX and Premium packs and collaborations. A pair from a Vans Old Skool 36 LX Souvenir Pack trades around 531 dollars against 70 dollars retail. Those brand rows describe collector releases, not the shoes on a shelf at a mall.
About the data
SneakerPing collects recorded sale prices for sneakers across StockX, GOAT, and eBay. This report is assembled from that dataset and is refreshed quarterly. Every figure is stamped with the date it was measured, so a number quoted from this page stays checkable against the edition it came from.
Corrections and methodology questions are welcome through the contact page. If a number here disagrees with your own data, we would rather hear it than not.
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